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Govt.: Shortfall of 500 doctors by next year -

is it a gross underestimate?

Projected shortfall of doctors (Full-time Equivalent)

Year 2016 2020 2025 2030

5 percentile 80 320 596 829
th
(0.7%) (2.6%) (4.4%) (5.7%)

Best guestimate 285 500 755 1007

(2.4%) (3.9%) (5.5%) (6.8%)

th
95 percentile 690 989 1296 1575

(5.7%) (7.5%) (9.0%) (10.3%)

There is a projected shortfall of

500 doctors by 2020 and 1007 doctors by 2030.

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Source: Food and Health Bureau Strategic Review on Healthcare Manpower Planning and Professional Development