Page 10 - OHKF_AnnualReport_2020_final_pagesAdded_20201216

Public Policy Research & Advocacy 公共政策研究及倡議
RESEARCH 研究

Cutting Red Tape to Catch Up with Slowdown Witnessed in Various Stages of Private Housing Development Cycle
私人住宅發展週期各階段正在放緩
Shortfalls in Land and Housing Supply
造地建屋大落後 官僚繁瑣待革新

Land acquisition 買地
Construction 施工
Estimated number of units on
spade-ready sites in 2019/20: 12,190 Property sale 樓盤開售
2019/20年度可建於「熟地」的
No. of superstructure
單位數量估算：12,190
commencements in 2019: 12,690
Completion 落成
2019年上蓋工程的動工數：
-16% since 2018/19 No. of presale consents
-53% since 2017/18 12,690
issued in 2019: 14,140
自2018/19年度下跌16% -44% since 2017 2019年獲發
自2017/18年度下跌53% 預售樓花同意書的單位 No. of units completed in
自2017年下跌44%
數量：14,140 2019: 14,093 [1]
2019年落成單位數量：
KEY RECOMMENDATIONS 主要建議 DATE OF RELEASE 報告發表日期 20/04/2020 -35% YoY A record low 14,093 [1]
Average development cycle [2] in the past 4 years
(from land acquisition to construction completion) 按年下跌35%四年來新低 -33% YoY A record low
in the past 4 years
• Streamlining the existing administrative 平均發展週期 [2] （由買地至單位落成） 按年下跌33%四年來新低
procedures for land and housing Need for Overhaul of LTHS Methodology years years
development 4.5 年 8 年
• Creating a one-stop disclosure platform for The OHKF also reviews the current methodology (present 目前) (by 2024年)
disclosing the progress of public housing of the LTHS in household projection, and explains
projects why the methodology will result in a vicious cycle Notes: [1] 450 Starter Homes units included 註： [1] 包括450個「首置」單位
of a downward revision of the supply target. The [2] 平均發展週期是根據將於2020至2024年落成的268個房屋項目來計算的。
• Reconvening the LTHS Steering Committee [2] The average development cycle is calculated based on 268 housing projects that are 資料來源：發展局、差餉物業估價署、屋宇署、地政總署、中原地產，以及團結香港基金
Government will therefore underestimate Hong to be completed in 2020 to 2024.
for reviewing the methodology used in Sources: Development Bureau, Rating and Valuation Department, Buildings Department,
Kong’s future housing demand if it continues to Lands Department, Centaline, and Our Hong Kong Foundation
housing demand projection
follow existing methodology.
� 促政府為各種土地發展行政程序拆牆鬆綁
� 倡政府建一站式平台增透明度，披露項目進度 房屋供應斷崖浮現 危機將持續惡化 Vicious Cycle of Demand Projection under Current LTHS Methodology
� 重新成立《長策》督導委員會，檢視房屋需求推算方式 現有《長策》推算方式導致的需求預測惡性循環
基金會觀察到私人住宅建築工程放緩，有關住宅發展
週期的領先指標均從以往一兩年的高峰大幅下跌。 Low completion rate implies that there are
報告預測未來五年（2020至2024年間）的私人住宅落成 1 fewer new houses for people to move to
落成量偏低意味著更少新單位可供市民遷出
Private Housing Supply Cliff Emerged 量將持續偏低，平均每年只有約16,000個單位落成。
and Would Soon Be Exacerbated 展望2025至2029年，土地供應亦會捉襟見肘。面臨嚴峻
的供應短缺，基金會提出了十項獲業界人士廣泛支持
The OHKF observed that leading indicators of the 的建議，務求簡化冗長的行政程序，加快房屋供應的 5 Low supply target Average no. of people in a
results in low
housing development cycle have all recorded a 步伐。 completion rate 2 flat is pushed up artificially
sharp reduction from their peak levels over the
供應目標下調 每戶平均人數被人為
past one to two years. Considering the industry 導致落成量偏低 地推高
slowdown, the Report forecasts a persisting low 基金會預計未來四年（2020/21至2023/24年度）的
supply of private housing in the next five years 公營房屋供應量為每年平均20,400個單位，比《長遠房屋
(2020–2024), with completion of an average of 政策》（《長策》）所定的供應目標少32%。公屋平均輪候
only 16,000 units per year. Looking ahead to 2025– 時間估計很快突破六年大關。基金會亦審視了三宗案例，
2029, land sources will also become insufficient 這些案例均顯示公營房屋項目或會受改劃後的不同後續 Demand forecast and supply The increase of household
with limited options. Against a dire supply outlook, 官僚程序所延誤。 4 target of housing drop 3 formation is artificially
the OHKF puts forward ten recommendations subsequently suppressed
that are championed by industry practitioners 房屋需求預測及 家庭住戶數目的增長
for removing administrative red tape to expedite 重新檢視《長策》推算方法 供應目標隨之下降 被人為地壓制
housing development initiatives.
基金會在報告中亦檢討了《長策》的推算方法，並指出
The estimated completion of public housing in the 了現行的需求推算方法將會導致供應目標持續下調的
next four years (2020/21 to 2023/24) is an average 惡性循環。若政府繼續沿用現行方法，將會低估香港
of 20,400 units per year, about 32% below the
未來的房屋需求。
Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS) target. The
average waiting time for a PRH flat is expected
to surpass the six-year mark very soon. In the
Report, we scrutinise three cases in which housing
projects cannot proceed smoothly beyond the
stage of rezoning due to delays in subsequent Full Report
administrative procedures. 報告全文
8 9