Page 10 - land_housing_research_report_engv3

Private Housing Completion to Increase

by 78% to 20,800 Units Per Annum...

Completion of Private Residential Units
Forecast
Number of units
40,000 2018 - 2022
Average:
35,000 1988 - 1997 20,800 units
30,000 Average: 28,300 units 1998 - 2007
Average: 24,000 units Supply target:
25,000 18,000 units
20,000 +78%
2008 - 2017
15,000
Average: 11,700 units
10,000
5,000
0
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Sources: Rating and Valuation Department, Buildings Department, Lands Department, Town Planning Board, company data from various developers, Our Hong Kong Foundation.

• We have updated our forecast for the future supply of private housing (see Appendix I for details of each project). This year,
Our Hong Kong Foundation (OHKF) provides a 5-year comprehensive forecast from 2018 to 2022.
• In 2017, 17,800 private residential units were completed, which was 1,700 units higher than our original forecast of 16,100
units. The higher-than-expected completion was due to the earlier-than-expected completion of Cullinan West (2,200 units) in
December. The figure is also a 12-year high and is an encouraging sign that the government’s effort in increasing private housing
supply is starting to pay off.
• Going forward, we forecast that completions in the next five years will gradually increase, with an annual average of about
20,800 units. This is a 78% increase from the annual average of 11,700 units in the preceding decade. In particular, we expect
the annual completion in 2018 to be 18,500 units, possibly surpassing 22,600 units in 2020, which is the highest since 2004.
• On the surface, the expected completion of 20,800 units per annum meets the government’s 10-year housing target, which
averages at around 18,000 units per annum.
• This, however, is still insufficient to compensate for the past shortfall. Specifically, compared to the average annual completion of
11,700 units between 2008 and 2017 with a (assumed) supply target of 18,000 units, a cumulative deficit of some 63,000 units
remains.

08 | Lacunae in Land Planning: Undersized, Undersupplied and Underestimated