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Shortcomings in “Hong Kong 2030+”:
A redefined projection of land demand
We believe the government’s land demand projection in the “Hong Kong 2030+”
consultation is too conservative. In our view, the projection has insufficiently taken into
account the current shortfalls in land resources and has underestimated the potential needs
in the future, especially if Hong Kong is to improve the living quality of its residents.

Hong Kong is infamous for one of the world’s highest population density and lowest
living space available per capita. At 170 sq ft, Hong Kong’s average living space per person
lags notably behind other neighbouring cities in the region. To catch up with Singapore,
Hong Kong will need a 60% enhancement in residential land in addition to the projection
made in “Hong Kong 2030+”.

Besides residential land, “Hong Kong 2030+” has not considered the existing
shortfalls in space for offices, hotel and retail, convention and exhibition, healthcare
facilities, recreational and sports facilities and other crucial infrastructure. The government’s
projection is arguably insufficient to maintain the city’s competitive edge as an international
hub and to care for an ageing population. To account for these underestimations /
omissions and improve the quality of living, we estimate Hong Kong needs more than 9,000
hectares of land in the next 30 years, nearly double of the government’s estimate of 4,800
hectares.

We note that 62% of land in Hong Kong is “locked up” or “semi-locked up” by
law or regulatory constraints for environmental reasons as designated country parks,
environmentally sensitive areas, or Green Belt zones. With the majority of the existing
land mass being undevelopable, we believe that in the long run, the most effective way to
create land is through large-scale reclamation outside Victoria Harbour. Compared to other
avenues of land supply, reclamation is the only way of providing Hong Kong with high-
quality land as a long-term solution.

Even so, a proactive, multi-pronged approach is necessary over the short to medium
term. To this end, after scrutinising some public documents, we have identified two plots
of hillside areas – developable land which may have been overlooked; we have termed
these areas “unzoned hills” (falling outside of country parks or any other environmentally
sensitive areas and not covered by any statutory plan). We would like to invite the
government to consider them as sites with serious potential for limited-scale public housing
development.

06 | Lacunae in Land Planning: Undersized, Undersupplied and Underestimated