Page 10 - LH_Research_Report_2020_Eng

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A high level of accuracy is evident in OHKF’s past forecastsgh level of accuracy is evident in OHKF’s past forecasts

(Table 1) The Government’s and OHKF’s estimates vs. actual completions

Number of units Rating and Valuation
completed Department’s estimate OHKF’s estimate
2016 14,595 18,200 17,700

2017 17,791 17,122 20,200

2018 20,968 18,130 20,800

2019 14,093 [1] 20,415 18,500
2020 — 20,850 17,000

Note: [1] 450 Starter Homes units included
Sources: Rating and Valuation Department and Our Hong Kong Foundation
As we look back on the past four years, our estimates have provided more accurate indications on private residential completion
than those of the RVD in 2016, 2018 and 2019.
According to the latest estimate by the RVD, 20,850 units will be completed in 2020. This is higher than our estimate for the same
year (17,000 units) by 23%. However, we believe that the RVD’s estimate is too optimistic.

As seen in the later sections, several leading indicators of the private housing market already signalled a
slowdown in every step of the development cycle. The number of completions in 2020 is unlikely to be as high
as expected by the RVD.

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