Page 9 - LH_Research_Report_2020_Eng

It missed Our Hong Kong Foundation (OHKF)’s 2019 estimate of 18,500 units by 24% and the Government of the Hong Kong
Special Administrative Region (the Government)’s own estimate of 20,415 units by 30%.

According to the Rating and Valuation Department (RVD), a total of 13,643 private residential units were completed in 2019.
As Starter Homes projects were also under the category of private residential housing according to the Long Term Housing
Strategy (LTHS), 450 units of Starter Homes were also included and adjusted in our calculation. Factoring in that, 14,093 private
residential units were completed in 2019.
Our rolling five-year estimates have been adjusted downward for two consecutive years. The 2018 estimate on the annual
average completion for the upcoming five years was 20,800 units. In 2019, it was revised downward by 11% to the annual
average completion of 18,500 units. Now in 2020, the estimate is made further down by 14% to arrive at an annual average
of 16,000 units for the next five years (2020–2024). (See Appendix I for details of Forecast of Future Private Housing
Supply (2020–2024))
The reason behind the downward revision is primarily due to a slowdown observed in all stages of the development cycle, from
land acquisition to construction (see Figures 6–9).

While there is increasingly less spade-ready land, the process of turning land into spade-ready sites for
residential purpose is also becoming slower. We also witnessed much fewer units with construction activities
commenced in 2019.

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