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Although there was a sharp rebound in completions of almost 50% year-on-year in 2020, there may not be evidence that this increase in completion will lead to a sustainable recovery in private housing supply. This is because, according to our observations, the slowdown in the development cycle that emerged in mid-2018 was unreversed last year. (For details, see Chapter 2 of the report) Our five-year completion forecasts for 2021–2025 will now average 15,000 units per annum. Indeed, our rolling five-year estimates have been revised down consistently for three consecutive years already. The current estimate of 15,000 units per year for 2021–2025 is 28% lower than the actual completions of 20,888 units in 2020, and 6% lower than our 2020 estimate of 16,000 units per year for 2020–2024. (See Appendix I for the project-by-project details of forecast future private housing supply in 2021–2025) Supply outlook remains challenging, despite a one-off recoverySources: Rating and Valuation Department, Buildings Department, Lands Department, Town Planning Board, company data from various developers, and Our Hong Kong FoundationActual completions Projected completionsFigure 4. Actual and projected completions of private residential units2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Number of unitsAnnual average completion in 2020—2024Annual average completion in 2021—202516,000 units15,000 units-6%-28,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,000+49 % YoYThe earlier-than-expected completions of two large projects contributed to the recent catch-up9